Even in normal times, exit polls are plagued with sampling bias, meaning different groups are not all equally likely to respond. It’s changing around our political parties and re-forming our understanding of the country. Those numbers will continue to creep up, but it appears that well more than 65% of Americans participated in the election process, according to one estimate. National exit polls show college-educated voters comprised a little less than half of the 2020 electorate, up slightly from 4 in 10 voters who had a college degree in 2016. National exit polls show college-educated voters comprised a little less than half of the 2020 electorate, up slightly from 4 in 10 voters who had a college degree in … Former Vice President. On the cusp of history. In Sun Belt states he won suburban counties that Democrats haven’t won in recent elections. About 1 in 8 say 2020 is the first year they have ever voted, about on par with the share saying so in 2008. The Cuban-American vote in Florida went up two or three points in relation to the 2016 presidential elections, according to exit polls. Today, it's usually around 35%, depending on the poll. Republicans outnumber Democrats by 7 points in Florida exit poll results, 37% vs. 30%, the widest R-D margin in Florida exit poll data through 1988 and a shift from 2016’s 33-32%. Trump's supporters are far more likely to call the economy their top issue (about 6 in 10 of the President's supporters say so) than to cite coronavirus (just 5% feel that way), while among Biden's supporters, more cite coronavirus (around 3 in 10) than the economy (about 1 in 10). In Florida, Biden made inroads with seniors and independents, capturing just under half of voters 65 and older, compared to 40% who went for Clinton, and more than half of independents, compared to only 43% who supported Clinton. And they lost a seat in Alabama. The survey suggests a high level of new voter participation. If you compare the CCES numbers to the results of 2020 exit polls by Edison Research, Trump actually improved by 4 percentage points. They have elected a woman — a woman of color, no less — on a nationwide ticket for the first time ever, and Democrats may yet gain a slim majority in the US Senate. It could be the highest turnout since 1900 — before women could vote. Voters largely found the experience of casting their ballots to be an easy one, though there is a wide gap between the share of White voters who say it was very easy (roughly three-quarters) and the share of Black voters who feel the same way (about half). CNN's exit polls this year incorporate in-person interviews at early voting locations and telephone interviews to target by-mail voters. Fewer than one-fifth were looking for someone who can unite the country. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 2020 Exit Poll Analysis •The “Flipped” group are the five states won by Trump/Pence in 2016, but won by Biden in 2020 –Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, exit polls. Among Black women, that number was even higher — 91 percent, as exit polls stand now — with 80 percent Black men voting for Biden. Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky won by large margins. Roughly 7 in 10 Trump backers say rebuilding the economy should be the nation's priority over containing the spread of the virus, while among Biden supporters, nearly 8 in 10 go the other way, saying that containing the coronavirus should be the bigger priority. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, nearly two-thirds of these voters supported Biden, compared with 47% of young Wisconsin voters and 52% of young Pennsylvania voters who cast ballots for Clinton in 2016. But they did pick up seats in Colorado and Arizona. Democrats can’t count on the Rust Belt. 1,2 This contrasts with the Latino vote, where Joe Biden lost 10 points of advantage compared to what Clinton achieved in 2016. Roughly 1 in 10 each cited health care policy and crime and violence as their top issue. How the electoral map changed between 2016 and 2020 — and what it means for the country By Zachary B. Wolf, Daniel Wolfe, ... Read more here about what we learned from exit polls. More than 74 million people cast votes for Biden and more than 70 million cast votes for Trump. Read more here about what we learned from exit polls. CNN, Marist, and Pew polls used here in both 2016 and 2020 only named the major party candidates. Marist’s 2016 media partner was McClatchy, and its partners are NPR and PBS NewsHour in 2020. Turnout for this election set records. Views on all things coronavirus divide voters based on political leanings. 4% 4%. A large portion of the country continued to support Trump despite his impeachment, his personal divisiveness, his courting of racists and more. Joe Biden has won the electoral votes to dislodge Donald Trump from the White House, according to CNN projections, and will become the 46th President of the United States. This year, around 2 in 5 independents supported the President. And that’s still technically a possibility. Meanwhile, slightly more than half of independent voters in early Arizona exit polls supported the former vice president, a significant increase from 2016, when Trump won the group by 47% to 44%. Topline. Two-thirds of voters said that climate change is a serious problem. Republicans outnumber Democrats by 7 points in Florida exit poll results, 37% vs. 30%, the widest R-D margin in Florida exit poll data through 1988 and a shift from 2016’s 33-32%. Independent voters are splitting 53%-43% Biden-Trump in Texas in preliminary exit poll results, compared to 2016 when Trump had a 14-point lead among those voters in the potential battleground state. In the 2016 election for president, did you vote for: Hillary Clinton (Dem) (40%) 95%. Biden, with help from new activism among young Black Democrats in Georgia as well as a coalition of Latino voters and disaffected Republicans in Arizona, is leading in two states Democrats have long had in their sights. He captured a double-digit lead with this group in Arizona and Pennsylvania, though Clinton did not win this group in either of these states in 2016. (Nov. 4, 2020)—Although votes continue to be counted, the youth vote has the potential to shape the outcome of the 2020 election and to decide the presidency of the United States, according to analysis out today from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), the preeminent, non-partisan research center on youth … The contours of a reshaped and expanded electorate are coming into focus, with network In Maine, Biden is projected to win three Electoral College votes; Trump is projected to win the remaining vote. It is forecast to take tens of thousands more lives in coming months. Exit polls show Biden had the support of roughly 60% of black voters in the state; Sanders had 17%. The point here is that the country is clearly changing. In the House, rather than building on their majority, Democrats have lost a handful of seats and may lose more as we get more results in California, where some of their 2018 gains appear likely to be erased. Notes: All polls are of registered voters. California has certified its electors for the 2020 election, officially giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. more than the 270 pledged electors needed to become president. And what worked in this election might not work in the next one, particularly if the singular politics of Trump are not involved. Seniors in Arizona also threw their support to Biden, who captured slightly more than half their vote. In Rust Belt states, Biden won back some suburban counties Clinton lost in 2016. Nationally, one of the largest changes from 2016 was Biden’s ability to cut into Trump’s support among White men. When it comes to the issues, nearly three-quarters of voters said a candidate's position on the issues was most important, while less than quarter named the candidate's personal qualities. Also, key to Trump’s victory was a 9-point lead among suburbanites, 54-45%, similar to his +10 in the Florida suburbs in 2016. Young voters were crucial to Biden's win in Wisconsin, flipping it blue from 2016. Women comprised just more than half of the electorate this year, according to those exit polls, similar to 2016. But if turnout rose by 3%, the margin in *number of votes* actually goes more blue, because the [increase] in votes cast *among a very D demographic* offsets switching from D to R. Table 1: 2016 and 2020 pre-convention polls. Summarizing the surprising demographic results in prose, USA Today, “Election 2020 exit polls: Political pundits utterly failed to predict Donald Trump’s voters“: Coverage of the Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden campaign largely focused on four areas: women, racial minorities, senior citizens and suburban voters. Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. Our 2016 projection based on the same data was that youth voter turnout that year would be 45%-48%. The candidate who got more votes is on pace to win this election, which didn’t happen in 2016. Biden also made significant gains among White voters without college degrees. exit polls are surveys of a small percentage of voters taken after they leave their voting place. CNN’s poll was conducted by ORC in 2016 and SSRS in 2020. Still, a majority say they are experiencing financial hardship as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Exit Polls 2020. Instead, 2020’s exit polls indicate that in key Rust Belt and Sun Belt battlegrounds, Biden benefitted from lower Republican margins among some of … A clearer picture will emerge in the years to come. Even though more cited the economy than coronavirus as their most important issue in choosing a candidate, a narrow majority say that the nation's priority now should be containing the coronavirus over rebuilding the economy. Biden also lost support among Latino voters in Georgia and Ohio, important states to capturing the White House. With coronavirus cases rising in many states, nearly 7 in 10 voters say they view wearing a face mask as a public health responsibility more than as a personal choice. ... Sanders lost the state by less than a percentage point in 2016. The August 2020 data combine results from surveys by YouGov, CNN and Morning Consult, with a total sample of more than 10,000. Exit polls are surveys of voters taken as they exit their polling place. But this also differs, with more than 4 in 5 Biden voters saying it's a public health responsibility, but only half of Trump supporters responding that it is. But more voters under age 30 have flocked to the former vice president in several important Midwestern states and in Arizona. About half overall say they are very confident that votes in their states will be accurately cast and counted, about the same as four years ago. And there are not one but two GOP-held Senate seats moving toward a January 5 runoff in Georgia. More than 4 in 5 Biden voters say that efforts to contain the virus are going badly, while only 1 in 10 Trump supporters feel that way. By Jennifer Agiesta, Tami Luhby, Grace Sparks and Ryan Struyk, CNN, Updated 0016 GMT (0816 HKT) November 5, 2020. A slim majority (52 percent) of non-union household voters backed the president, while 46 percent said they opted for Biden, according to the exit poll. And his share among independent voters slipped from 47% in 2016 to just over 2 in 5 this year. Both Maine and Nebraska allow electoral votes to be split. White voters with college degrees also shifted slightly toward Biden. Among young voters in Arizona, Biden was the candidate of choice by more than 2 to 1. In a sense, the 2020 exit poll was just another pre-election survey. Trump’s defeat is a clear victory for Democrats even if it is not the blue tidal wave that had become a pre-election expectation of some. Exit poll estimates put Mr Trump on a 61% share of the white vote in Florida. The majority of Trump and Biden supporters said they cast ballots more in support of their candidate than against his opponent, though Trump's base was even more loyal to him. There’s good news for the idea of democracy. RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016) | Top Battlegrounds (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16) | Favorability Ratings (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16) MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. Exit polls show a mixed bag for President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, with most voters saying they aren’t better off now compared to 2016 … Mr Biden appears to have made up ground on Hillary Clinton's performance with this demographic in 2016. It’s notable that even the early youth turnout estimate for 2020 is higher than the projected estimate from 2016. That finding comes as most voters feel the nation's efforts to contain the virus are going badly. The President captured almost half of the group in Florida, up from 35% in 2016. The coalition of states that hands Biden the White House represents both the party’s past and its future. CNN Exit Polls are a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and telephone polls measuring the views of absentee by-mail and early voters, and were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. Sen. Susan Collins defied expectations and is on the cusp of victory in Maine, and Sen. Thom Tillis is leading in his bid for reelection in North Carolina. Biden’s failure in some other key counties — in Kenosha County, Wisconsin, and MacComb County, Michigan, for instance — is proof that suburbs will be battlegrounds going forward. (CNN)President Donald Trump picked up more Latino voters in several key battleground states than he won in 2016, according to results of a nationwide CNN exit poll. * The 2016 figures are taken from the exit poll commissioned by the TV networks; total sample 23,447. The economy was top of mind for voters as they cast ballots for president, according to results of the, And while they were fairly evenly split on whether the country's economy is doing well, more than half said. Trump lost support among the age group in these four states compared with 2016. They did it with a unique coalition of liberal democratic socialists, disaffected moderate Republicans and everyone in between — and they expanded the electoral map, proving that a younger and more diverse electorate has new priorities. Before the election, Democrats had become increasingly confident they would take control of the US Senate. Comparing the 2016 national exit poll to current quality polling provides a good look at the state of the 2020 presidential race, Rothenberg writes. More than half of voters said the Supreme Court should keep Obamacare as it is. And repeating this trend in suburban counties in key states, Biden made up for increased turnout in rural counties where Trump improved his showing from four years ago. While Biden did rebuild the blue wall, it’s clear that Democrats can’t bank on the Rust Belt. Biden, a Pennsylvania native, cut into Trump’s lead with White men in the Keystone state, in particular, over his 2016 margin when he faced Hillary Clinton. Their efforts to turn out and win Latino voters needs help. That margin increases to 11 points for men with a college degree. The difference is that … Only 33% said he was honest and trustworthy in the 2016 exit poll. Trump won the group handily in 2016, 62% to Clinton's 34%. Look to states like Ohio and Iowa, which Democrats thought would be competitive but which ultimately went comfortably to Trump to understand the difficulty the party still faces with White, socially conservative voters. Biden’s victory came as a result of incredible turnout and some gains not in cities that are Democratic strongholds, but also in the suburban counties that often decide U.S. elections. Polls. Circle size represents each state's Electoral College votes. Those surveys. With coronavirus cases and hospitalizations rising in many states, nearly 7 in 10 voters say they view wearing a face mask as a public health responsibility more than as a personal choice. In 2016, Trump won this demographic. “If black voters went 94% D vs 5% R in 2016, then 93D vs 6R in 2020, that’s a 2pt shift to Trump. Clinton also won the Latino vote there handily in 2016. And in Ohio, around 3 in 5 young voters turned out for Biden, compared with just over half for Clinton. That’s not a path future Democratic candidates may be able to achieve. While … Just over half of senior voters in Florida selected Trump, compared to 57% in 2016, according to the exit poll. By Zachary B. Wolf, Daniel Wolfe, Byron Manley, Renée Rigdon and Curt Merrill, CNN, Read more here about what we learned from exit polls. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 115 polling locations nationwide among 7,774 Election Day voters. Election 2016 exit polls: percentage of votes by belief in direction of country ... (November 5, 2020). And while Republicans may not have the White House, they seriously ate into Democrats’ House majority and may yet hold the Senate. Justices will hear oral arguments on a case that seeks to overturn the landmark health reform law next Tuesday. (They are the three companies which have published voting intention analysed by ideology.) With a tidal wave of early and absentee voters this year, very few made up their minds in the final days of the contest: Just 4% say they made up their minds in the final week of the campaign, and almost three-quarters said they made up their minds before September. Why Florida is a battleground state like no other, John King: If Trump thinks 2016 was a landslide, 2020 is as well, 'Chilling to hear': Tapper reacts to Pompeo's refusal to acknowledge Biden win, Keilar calls out GOP enablers fueling Trump's refusal to concede, Biden says Trump's failure to concede won't affect transition, See what Pompeo said when asked about Biden's victory, Erin Burnett: This is who is holding up Biden's transition process, SE Cupp: This was always going to be problematic at Fox News, Berman asks Georgia GOP official if he's seen any voter fraud, Hear Joe Biden's message to Trump supporters, Joe Biden pledges to unify, not divide, as president, Kamala Harris: Americans ushered in a new day, See the moment CNN called the race for Joe Biden, Van Jones: For a lot of people it's a good day, Live Updates: Presidential election results 2020. Clearly the country remains bitterly divided, but it’s hard to argue Biden doesn’t have some kind of political mandate with more than half the vote. White voters made up roughly 2 in 3 voters in the 2020 electorate, which is down slightly from 71% in the 2016 electorate. The computerized vote counts have the Republican Party with a two seat advantage. The country is divided to a degree many people didn’t realize. About half of voters say the nation's economy is in poor shape, though more say they are better off today than four years ago (around 4 in 10) than say they are worse off today (2 in 10). However, in preliminary results from Arizona, Latino voters favored Biden by nearly 2 to 1, with Trump barely making a dent. There’s bad news for Democrats, too. As of Tuesday afternoon, the US reported 9.3 million cases of the virus and more than 232,000 people have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In fact, Biden will exceed 50% of the vote. It’s also a lesson that Latino voters are not a monolith: Cuban-Americans in Miami proved receptive to Trump’s allegation that Democrats would veer the country toward socialism. The President still triumphed among White non-college voters but led his Democratic challenger by significantly less -- 16 percentage points this cycle compared with 28 points in 2016. More than 3 in 5 voters said that Supreme Court appointees were an important factor in their vote -- Trump named three justices in his first term, shifting the court to the right. Importantly, those gains in suburban counties extended even into states that Trump ultimately won, such as Ohio and Florida, which is something for both parties to consider in the future. As of Nov. 7, Biden is projected to win one of Nebraska's five Electoral College votes. More white women voted for President Donald Trump in 2020 (55%) compared to the 53% (or 52% some polls found) who voted for him in 2016, according to the New York Times exit poll. More than 4 in 5 people said they voted for the President, while just under two-thirds of Biden's voters said the same. One third said so, while just under a quarter were wanting someone with good judgment and just over one-fifth thought a candidate who "cares about people like me" was most important. The differences among men are more striking: White men without college education were seven points more likely to vote for Biden (30%) than for Clinton (23%). The top quality voters were looking for in a president was a strong leader. But Republicans easily scored key Senate victories. While he failed to win the massive prizes of Texas and Florida, which Democrats had hoped to win on similar terms, it’s clear the country is changing and states once unthinkable for Democrats to win are now on the table. The results also include 4,919 interviews with early and absentee voters conducted by phone. Among voters for the former vice president, more than one-third said racial inequality was their most important issue, beating out all others. About one-third of voters called the economy their most critical issue, while roughly 1 in 5 citing racial inequality and about 1 in 6 named the coronavirus pandemic as most important to their vote. Those without a college degree were five points more likely to vote for the Democrat in 2020 (34% in 2016 vs. 39% in 2020). NEP Exit Poll AP VoteCast Flipped 15,787 18,100 Held 23,825 17,456 Total 39,612 35,556 FABRIZIO LEE 3 2020ExitPollAnalysis. Those runoffs now appear likely to decide who controls the Senate. And Biden’s failure in Texas and Florida holds warning bells for Democrats. 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