Reproduction prohibited without the express permission of Gallup, Inc. Frank Newport, Ph.D., is a Gallup senior scientist. I recently explored the possible impact of abortion on Black Americans and the coming presidential election. Although President Donald Trump's campaign has made efforts to reach out to Black voters, the historical record and current data show it is unlikely that the percentage of the Black vote going to Trump will vary much from the low percentages Republican presidential candidates have received in previous election cycles. North Carolina’s Black voter turnout in the 2020 general election ticked up 4% from 2016. Trump's presidential campaign emphasizes his positive stewardship of the economy, and this is an issue on which he consistently does better in polling against Biden than on other issues. Our proven strategies for successful strengths-based development. 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Copyright © 2021 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. Black voters helped the Democrat win the nomination. While the election saw a higher percentage of Black voters cast support for Donald Trump than they did in 2016, Black voter turnout was higher in 2020, with an estimated 87 percent of Black voters supporting the Biden ticket, according to The New York Times. The 2020 presidential election broke records for voter turnout, including the number of minorities that cast a ballot. Duval County was a part of that initiative. US election 2020 live: follow the latest news, results and reaction Estimates of Black turnout vary, depending on how it is calculated, but all sources show that it was significantly higher in the elections of 2008 and 2012, with Barack Obama on the ballot, than before or after. The challenge for the Biden campaign lies in pushing Black voters' enthusiasm (and, hence, turnout) closer to the historical records achieved by Obama in 2008 and 2012 than the lower levels seen in 2016. But we have seen variation in turnout among Black voters over recent elections. What factors will determine whether Black turnout this year will be closer to the two election years with Obama on the ballot, or 2016 with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee? Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012. The 2020 presidential election broke records for voter turnout, including the number of minorities that cast a ballot. But we have few indications so far that abortion is going to become a major issue for Black voters. More Americans voted in the 2020 election — two-thirds of the voting eligible population — than in any other in 120 years. North Carolina’s Black voter turnout in the 2020 general election ticked up 4% from 2016. Gallup's sample size of Black Americans in a recent poll measuring Harris' image is too small to allow precise estimates, but the data suggest that she has lower favorable and higher unfavorable ratings among Black Americans than Biden as of early September. Turnout by Sex and Age. In 2008 and 2012, Black voters showed up in record numbers for Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president — setting a new high bar. Johnson explained the NAACP’s effort wasn’t just about getting people to vote, but getting people that are engaged in the community that will vote to encourage others. This seven-percentage-point drop in turnout among Black voters between 2012 and 2016 hurt Clinton in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- states whose loss in turn ultimately cost her the Electoral College and the presidency. Looked at differently, older, college-educated Black women appear to be the target group with the highest potential for Biden. +1 202.715.3030. Black voter turnout in Knoxville surged in 2020 presidential election ... said increasing Black voter turnout was an intentional part of the party's efforts leading up to Election Day. Minnesota has had the highest voter turnout in every presidential election since at least 2004 — 79.96 in 2020, 74.80% in 2016, 76.40% in 2012, 78.10% in 2008 and 78.80% in 2004. Black turnout could be affected by the candidates' positions on high-salience issues. Several news commentators and reports have discussed the possibility that Trump may overperform among Black voters this year. Pew Research, for example, reports that Black turnout was 57% in 2000, 65% in 2008, 67% in 2012, and then dropped to 60% in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton faced Trump. There have been no voter fraud cases in the state since two cases in … Copyright © 2016 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. My conclusion: "Considering the greater diversity of views on abortion among Black Americans than among Democrats more generally, it is at least within the realm of possibility that Black voters who are personally anti-abortion will be negatively affected by Biden's abortion position." Biden does have a presumed plus on his side in the person of his vice-presidential running mate, Kamala Harris, the first major-party Black vice-presidential candidate in U.S. history. The number of Black Americans eligible to vote for president has reached a record 30 million in 2020, with more than one-third living in nine of the nation’s most competitive states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – a higher share than the 29% of all U.S. eligible voters who live in these states. Updated: 11:06 AM EST Nov 3, 2020 ... Black voter turnout is more than 10 points higher than overall turnout.Laurens County is third on that list with 33% of the Black … A vastly improved search engine helps you find the latest on companies, business leaders, and news more easily. September 25, 2020 Copyright 2020 by WJXT News4Jax - All rights reserved. And Obama will no doubt continue to endorse and campaign for Biden in this election, perhaps increasing Black Americans' enthusiasm for voting. Share Shares Copy Link. Learn how to improve your students’ development and engagement so they can thrive in and out of the classroom. “This was the most strategic and largest initiative for voters,” said NAACP President Derrick Johnson. Using data from the U.S. The overall life ratings of Black Americans have eroded since 2016, but negative emotional experiences are unchanged in recent years. The turnout for Black votes overall was 68%, according to State Board of Elections data. Subscribe to the Gallup News brief and real time alerts. The issue is complex, because Black Americans are more religious than White Americans, and religiosity is, in general, negatively correlated with support for abortion rights. Black Americans turned out at 63%, compared to 60% in 2016. In 2020, Black voters, particularly Black women, who vote at higher rates than men, were seen as the saviors of the party, of a campaign, able to pull off political upsets with a single bound. Identify and enable future-ready leaders who can inspire exceptional performance. Liberals have lambasted Georgia for “purging” voters and restricting ballot access. Gallup's aggregated data from polls conducted July 30-Aug. 12 and Aug. 31-Sept. 13 show Trump approval -- a rough surrogate for likelihood to vote for Trump -- at 11% among Black Americans, with disapproval at 87%. The Census Bureau’s estimates confirm the general perception that 2020 voter turnout was very high, at … Copy {copyShortcut} to copy Link copied! Given Biden's public support for abortion rights, could the abortion issue serve as a damper on Black voter enthusiasm? The recent Sept. 13-16 Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Biden leading Trump among Black voters by 90% to 5%. Three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate loom, providing the final major opportunity for the campaigns to have a meaningful impact on the Black vote in 2020. ... hard to make such deceptive claims when Hispanics made up 11% of the total turnout in the 2020 … Trump job approval is also significantly lower among Black Americans 65 and older and among Black Americans with college educations than among other Black Americans. Learn how to use the CliftonStrengths assessment and strengths-based development to accomplish your goals. My analysis showed that Black Democrats are indeed less supportive of abortion rights than non-Black Democrats. “We did have an effort in Duval County and in much of Florida,” Johnson said. This leaves open the question of Harris' ability to create enthusiasm and turnout among Black voters. In contrast, non-Hispanic Black voter turnout in 2020 was only 3 percentage points higher than non-Hispanic Asian turnout. Black voter turnout in 2016 was lower than in 2008 and 2012 — when President Barack Obama was on the ticket — but still high compared with earlier election cycles. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research's compilation of voting data from previous presidential elections provides appropriate historical context. Specifically, among Black women, the U.S. Census shows a consistent lead in turnout rates with 64% of them casting ballots in 2016 and a record 55% in the 2018 Midterms. The N&O reported in 2017 that Black voter turnout in the 2016 election in North Carolina was 64.3%. The NAACP said it spent millions of dollars, especially in swing states, to encourage voters to get to the polls. 2020, then, presents a range of questions when it comes to black voters: Will they, as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton and ’08 with Barack Obama, coalesce behind a single candidate? Men in the U.S. today are more likely than women to be Republican, and this skew holds to a limited degree among Black Americans. Of surveyed Georgia voters who voted for President-elect Joe Biden. Most of the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the Black vote on the presidential election this year is focused on turnout. In the 2016 election, 63% … Biden obviously hopes for the former, in part because of his connection with Obama, having served as his vice president for eight years. There was agreement that the states offering a same-day voter registration and voting option, which 24 states and the District of Columbia did in 2020, boosted turnout … In 2020, 68% of women eligible to vote reported voting — higher than the 65% turnout for men. This could be of crucial importance in swing states where Black turnout could be a deciding factor in the election outcome. $15 million dollars was spent on the initiative, which included the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Texas and Alabama. Changes in economic reality and candidates' statements and positioning are less important to voters than their underlying ideological predispositions. Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A But Georgia had a smaller black-white voting gap than Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia and California—all states controlled by Democrats. November General Elections: 1976 – Present; Year Total Registered Percentage Change from Previous Year Total Voting Turnout (% Voting of Total Registered) Voting Absentee (Included in Total Voting); 2020: 5,975,696: 6.18%: 4,486,821 Stay up to date with our latest insights. But Black Americans overwhelmingly identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, and Democrats are much more negative than Republicans about the economy. Turnout by Sex and Age In 2020… Our applicable and actionable best practices for education leaders. Most of the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the Black vote on the presidential election this year is focused on turnout. Learn how to develop and engage employees to create an exceptional workplace and boost your business outcomes. An aggregated Gallup sample from late July through mid-September shows Biden with a 75% favorable and 20% unfavorable rating among Black Americans, compared with Obama's consistent 90%+ favorable ratings among Black Americans in August, September and October 2008, during his initial presidential campaign. But available evidence suggests that Biden, while viewed favorably by Black Americans, does not enjoy the extraordinarily positive sentiments Obama received when he was campaigning. Americans have become more supportive of abolishing the Electoral College since 2019, as 61% overall now hold this view, including 89% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans. The organization used social media, text messages and radio ads. Gallup tracking in August and September 2016 showed Clinton with an average favorable rating of 71% among Black Americans as she campaigned for the presidency. These materials are provided for noncommercial, personal use only. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Gallup https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/320903/black-turnout-2020-election.aspx Understand the culture you have, define the one you want and make your organizational identity a competitive advantage. The turnout for Black votes overall was 68% , according … Of surveyed Georgia voters who voted for President Donald Trump. There are, however, few indications in polling data that Trump has been successful in changing the historical pattern by which Black voters overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate in presidential years. But Black voter turnout dropped significantly in key cities in 2016, prompting debate within the party about why and a feeling among Black voters that they were being blamed for Trump’s victory. A key issue relating to the Black vote will be the percentage of eligible Black voters who turn out to vote. Black Americans are consistently more likely than White Americans to mention that the No. 16-year veteran journalist and Emmy Award winning anchor. Thus, it is not surprising to find that Black Americans' ratings of the economy are significantly lower than Americans' as a whole in Gallup polls conducted from late July to early August and from late August to early September. In contrast, non-Hispanic Black voter turnout in 2020 was only 3 percentage points higher than non-Hispanic Asian turnout. Voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in 120 years when measured as a percentage of the voting-eligible population: 66.7 percent. Black turnout was highest in Maryland (75.3%) followed by Mississippi (72.8%) and lowest in Massachusetts (36.4%). This perceptual edge provides Biden (and Harris) with an opportunity to increase Black voter turnout by emphasizing the policy actions and initiatives they would take to improve racial inequities, particularly by contrasting their approach with Trump's emphasis on restraining race protests from a law-and-order perspective. Ensure that you have the right strategy, culture, people, structure and processes in place to achieve your goals. The differences are not huge: 19% Trump job approval among Black men, 11% among Black women. Biden and Harris, who is Black and Indian-American, have been courting the Black … Analyzing impact of Black voter turnout in 2020 general election. The Democratic candidate for president over the five presidential elections since 2000 has averaged 91% of the Black vote, with 8% on average going to the Republican candidate. Black voter turnout increased by 4.9 percent over 2004 with Hispanic voters increasing by 2.7 percent. Recent polling by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist shows that 84% of Black registered voters say Biden can better handle race relations (PDF download), compared with 9% who choose Trump. If you need help with WJXT’s or WCWJ's FCC public inspection file, call (904) 393-9801. Put the customer at the core of every part of your organization to deliver exceptional experiences and grow your business. Presidential horse-race polling so far this year shows no indication of significant variation from this historical pattern. Nevertheless, younger Black men without college educations may provide a greater challenge for Biden's campaign blandishments than other Black Americans. In a moment of hyperbole on the campaign trail in 2016, Trump promised that if elected president, he would get 95% of the Black vote in 2020, but in reality, it is highly unlikely that dramatic change in the underlying structure of presidential vote preferences among racial and ethnic subgroups will occur. Elections Project—ballot totals last updated Dec. 7, 2020, Stacker compiled data on voter turnout in every state, including early voting and mail-in ballot voting. 2 The Latino voter turnout rate held steady at … Learn how to discover the data you need to help your organization make better decisions and create meaningful change. Turnout surged among Asian American, Latino or Hispanic, and non-college white voters. In 2020, the NAACP’s focus was on voter engagement. According to AP VoteCast, which surveys voters in the general election: Of surveyed Florida voters who voted for President-elect Joe Biden. A plurality of Americans (42%) say the ideological makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court is "about right," while about one in three (32%) say the high court is "too conservative" and 23% say it is "too liberal.". JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The NAACP is working to ensure Georgia voters know that another important election is coming up in January -- the runoff races for two Senate seats. 1 problem facing the nation is race and racism. Each state and Washington D.C. was ranked on the total ballots counted out of the voter … Of surveyed Florida who voted for President Donald Trump. Census figures released Thursday show that turnout in 2020 reached a near-historic high for a presidential election, with 66.8% of voting-age … Thus, Biden's current image among Black Americans is closer to Clinton's than to Obama's at comparable points in their campaigning, underscoring the challenge facing Biden as he attempts to replicate Obama's ability to bring out the Black vote. How much these negative views of the nation's economic situation could motivate Black Americans to turn out and vote for a change in presidential leadership is unknown at this point. 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